Bitcoin Price Move Incoming

Bitcoin is on the brink of a significant price move, according to onchain analysts. In a newsletter published on Monday, lead Glassnode analyst James Check highlighted a crucial behavioral indicator: the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for short-term holders is "dropping like a stone." This metric suggests the market is starved for new prices, indicating that a substantial price shift is imminent.

Understanding the Sell-Side Risk Ratio

     The Sell-Side Risk Ratio compares the cumulative realized profits and losses of traders to Bitcoin’s "realized cap" – the total value of all bitcoins based on their last transaction prices. When the realized profit and loss are low compared to the realized cap, it signals that traders have already taken their intended profits or losses at current prices. This equilibrium suggests that the market needs a new price move to motivate further trading activity.

     James Check elaborated on this in an accompanying tweet: "Range contraction (consolidation) leads to Range Expansion (trending). Bitcoin is coiled like a spring, and it usually doesn’t sit still like this for long." This indicator points to an upcoming significant price movement, although it does not inherently predict whether the move will be upward or downward.

Current Market Dynamics

In Glassnode’s weekly report on Tuesday, the firm noted that many short-term holder coins have been accumulated close to the current spot price. This introduces a risk of increased investor sensitivity to any volatile price fluctuations in either direction. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price showed some upside volatility on Tuesday, rising by 3% to $71,000.

Macro Events and Market Sensitivity

     Despite the bullish optimism, Check urged investors to remain vigilant about unfolding macroeconomic events that could trigger downside volatility in the near term. Sticky inflation expectations in the United States are pushing the Federal Reserve towards a "higher for longer" interest rate regime. This includes the possibility of dropping bond prices further, which will reduce investor risk appetite since US debt is a universal form of collateral.

"The bond market is the one that gets to ‘call time’ on risk assets and financial stability," wrote Check. "Should yields accelerate higher from here, it starts getting close to the territory where things could get hairy, and fast."

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Watch the Sell-Side Risk Ratio: This indicator suggests that Bitcoin is nearing a point of significant price movement. Traders should prepare for potential volatility.
  • Be Aware of Accumulation Patterns: Short-term holder coins accumulated near the current spot price could lead to heightened sensitivity to price changes, causing rapid market shifts.
  • Monitor Macro Events: Keep an eye on inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policies. Changes in bond prices and interest rates can significantly impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
  • Prepare for Both Scenarios: While indicators suggest a major price move is imminent, it’s crucial to be prepared for both upward and downward trends.


      Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with onchain indicators pointing towards a substantial price move. While the direction of this move remains uncertain, understanding the underlying metrics and macroeconomic factors can help investors navigate the upcoming volatility. By staying informed and prepared, traders can better position themselves to capitalize on Bitcoin’s next big move.