A presentation was held at Apple headquarters for the first time in three years


The iPhone is expensive because it is a high-end smartphone. This year, the depreciation of the yen has had a direct impact, and it feels especially high.

"Then, will the new iPhone sell well?" "What does Apple think?" While checking the new products hands-on, I tried to think about it, including the atmosphere.


  • Today's iPhone evolves every few years 

This is the voice I hear every year. Now that the use of smartphones has been established to some extent and the speed of semiconductor process evolution has slowed down, it is difficult to make rapid changes like in the past. Especially for the iPhone, one of the main pillars is to "sell the same model in large quantities all over the world", so it is difficult to use parts that are not stable in production. So there are some parts that feel tame compared to the edgy models that exist in Android.

It is undeniable that the "iPhone 14" series looks plain, especially this year, as the "iPhone 14 Pro" series has been the focus of easy-to-understand spec evolution.

   


iPhone 14 Pro (left) and iPhone 14 Pro Max (right)


iPhone 14 (left) and iPhone 14 Plus (right)

However, if you look at the current smartphone market and predict Apple's strategy, you'll probably see something like this.


  • Longer smartphone replacement cycle

The replacement cycle for smartphones is now longer than in the past. In the case of Japan as well, it is generally over 3 years/nearly 4 years. More than five years ago, there should have been more within two years. This is a global trend. Considering the "difference from last year's model" among them, the range is small, but when compared to the model two to three years ago, the range of evolution is not so small.

Within that, it will be important how to evolve the base technology and position it in the long-term roadmap.

A distinctive element is the "Photonic Engine", which is the core engine for photography installed in the iPhone 14/Pro series.



iPhone 14 will be equipped with "Photonic Engine" as a shooting engine for photography


This is not implemented in hardware, but implemented as software within iOS. That means that it seems that it can be implemented in past models such as iPhone 13 by updating the OS.

However, according to Apple, "there is no response."

The Photonic Engine is software, but it is said that it was created by reviewing the entire photography pipeline within the iPhone. Therefore, it is said that it is not just the processor that is involved, but that it is made specifically for the hardware installed in the iPhone, such as the sensor and image signal processor (ISP). In order to prepare for the iPhone 13, it seems necessary to re-integrate it according to the iPhone 13 hardware.

In other words, Apple seems to plan to renovate the software engine in parallel with the hardware and use it in future iPhones.

Now that smartphones have become so popular, there is a certain volume and cycle of replacement demand. Among them, "People who chose the iPhone before will also choose it next time", and it seems that they are aiming for a form in which the functions are naturally improved.

That's how the author thinks.

However, the most important thing among them is "the reason why they will choose the iPhone next time". Apple will be in trouble if the price rises and people think that "the cheaper one is fine".

This time, sales prices in other countries, including Japan, have risen due to the impact of the "strong dollar", but sales prices in the United States have almost slid since last year. Due to the impact of inflation and soaring parts prices, it may have been difficult to maintain the price even for the American market, but Apple probably wanted to protect it.

According to research by Hong Kong research firm Counterpoint, Apple's share of the US market is stably high, and in the "premium smartphone" market of $400 or more, the share of products priced at $1,000 or more tends to increase. Considering this data together, it is thought that the iPhone in the US market is getting stronger.


Data from Hong Kong research firm Counterpoint. The share of the iPhone in the United States is stably high.



Also from Counterpoint data. In the $400+ premium smartphone market, high-priced products are growing year-on-year

  • There is a hint in "set" with Apple Watch

     So what's behind that?

It seems that there is a hint that this announcement was "a set with the Apple Watch".

Apple is promoting the Apple Watch with "health care" and "safety" as targets. This year's announcement also announced "Collision Accident Detection" assuming a car accident, and it was installed in both the Apple Watch and the iPhone 14.


``Collision accident detection'' that assumes a car accident was
 greatly appealing on both Apple Watch and iPhone 14


The "emergency call by satellite communication" installed in the iPhone 14 will also be rolled out in the United States and Canada from November this year.


A system to issue emergency calls via satellite via text message will start in
 the United States and Canada from November this year.

     Many people do not use these "just in case" functions, and will replace them with the next smartphone. However, it is also an event that can happen to anyone. If Apple continues to appeal as a unique element by integrating hardware and services, there will be people who will not switch to anything other than the iPhone due to that element. The Apple Watch can only be used with an iPhone, so that's also important.


  • "Discounts" are also emphasized in the United States. Is it okay for Japan to remain as it is?

That said, there should be people who prefer the price over the "just in case" feature. Like satellite communication, if the function itself is not yet available in Japan, the appeal will diminish accordingly.

"Discount" is another point here.

Even though America has a better economy than Japan, not everyone can afford to buy expensive iPhones. Apple itself is actively appealing the method of buying in combination with a mechanism to buy as cheaply as possible, such as trade-in discounts and discounts linked to mobile phone carriers' communication plans.


Even in Japan, methods of using trade-ins from mobile phone operators and Apple for discounts have been presented. However, due to the policy of separating mobile phone charges and terminal charges, the amount of discounts in Japan is limited.

In the case of Japan, the fact that there are restrictions on “how to buy expensive smartphones cheaply”, including the weak yen, can be said to be a big brake not only for iPhones but also for high-end smartphones. It seems that there will be no major changes to the sales method this year, so it can be said that "sales will be tough this year" due to the direct hit of the weaker yen.

I'm not saying that we should go back to the days when we could buy any device for zero yen or get a large amount of cash back, but we should change the system to the level that ``mobile phone operators can compete using device sales.'' I wonder if it's not.